Western Foreign Policy and Narendra Modi

A great many media outlets have been highlighting the recent decision of the British government in reconsidering it's position vis a vis Narendra Modi, the reigning Chief Minister in Gujrat for more than a decade. View the recent write up in the Economist or this one at IAT .

The facts why this development is being viewed as an extremely significant move has multiple reasons -

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi

• Narendra Modi is currently the longest serving Chief Minister, of ANY state in India, during the past 20years.
• Modi is also the longest serving Chief Minister of the State of Gujrat, having completed 11 years.
• Modi is also up for re-election next month.
• Modi is one of the most prominent figures from the single largest opposition party in India the BJP, as well as part of the alliance national opposition parties in the central government.
• Modi is quite often projected as a the future leader - Prime Minister of India.
• India is scheduled for national elections in the Spring of 2014, though the possibility of a mid-term election being forced on the people is looming large due to a very fragile and splintered UPA-2 Alliance.   

The Indian political scene is currently in a state of turmoil on the national level with key individuals from the ruling Gandhi clan led Congress-UPA-??? combine being accused, investigated, and indicted for billions of dollars worth of corruption and fraud of taxpayer money and even foreign aid  involving arms deals, allocation of natural resources, real estate development deals, telecommunication licenses, financial sector irregularity, tax evasion, etc. You name it and there is documented evidence of widespread corruption and bribery anywhere and everywhere you look!

It is against this backdrop that Narendra Modi's supposed rehabilitation by western governments, against a backdrop of alleged human rights violations in 2002, becomes all the more poignant. This after vilifying Modi personally as well as his administration for almost a decade. Western governments including the US have revoked his privilege to enter their countries by denying him entry visas, as a means to bully him. They have knowingly and / or unknowingly become pawns of the Congress led UPA combine in India to declare him persona-non-grata against popular and overwhelming support of him across the world.

Anyway, the announcement by the British Foreign Office and a leak from a senior high ranking US diplomat to review their governments status about their one sided and contentious relationship with Narendra Modi, his administration, as well as his political ideology has been welcomed by Indian-Americans, Global-Indians, and the Indian public. They are rejoicing at this opportunity as well as looking to celebrate "the victory" of Modi having prevailed after all these years.

However, in my opinion it is too premature to even think of celebrating, my reasons are listed as follows. My analysis is mainly US centric since that is where I am based, yet it clearly reflects the basic tenets of Western foreign policy vis a vis the rest of the world.

Regardless of the political party in power in the US - President / Senate / House, the basic tenets of US foreign policy are unwavering. Unless the US is looking to dump the Gandhi family led Congress-UPA-? combine the status quo will not change. The Jasmine Revolution which was the precursor to the Arab spring has brought more than anticipated and acceptable anarchy to the MENA region. Europe and US will not allow that to happen again especially in India which is geo-politically and economically more than a keystone in the global context now.

Let's not get myopic and ignore reality from the historical past in the South-Asian region, before we start to gloat. In Pakistan Musharraf was dumped. Benazir Bhutto (the nurturer of the Taliban) was brought in, but then was assassinated and a puppet regime headed by her widower Asif Ali Zardari (who is the defacto leader of Bhutto's PPP) has been in place since. 

Just because there is widespread unrest against the Gandhi clan and it's supporters right now doesn't mean that Narendra Modi is in the good books of the Western interests now. Don't forget the AB Vajpayee govt. was disposed of as soon as it asserted it's independence on various issues including nuclear proliferation. Even after the Arab Spring and the change at the top in Pakistan the behind the scene players remain the same in those places with continued support from Europe & US.

 
One more thing to always keep in mind US economic interests have never been sidelined despite whatever political ideology has been in place at the policy making level as long as American companies profit! The sad part is we equate popular sentiment to the official stance of overt and behind the scenes position US policy should reflect. This has never been the case. Cases in point American business interests and trade with Communist China, oil purchases from Venezuela, trade with Putin's Russia, aid to Pakistan etc. Or take the unwavering US support for Taiwan despite enormous risk in strategic and crucial bi-lateral relationships with China. There is already quite a bit trade of activity with Gujrat notwithstanding Narendra Modi. So dropping an unpopular public stance to placate a vast majority of Indian-Americans / Global-Indians is really not a big deal. I strongly believe that Narendra Modi does not need to be vetted by European or American policy makers.

Let's keep our eye on the big picture! Indians deserve more importantly a reliable pan-India organization with integrity which needs to have the overwhelming trust of the Indian electorate. That will be the tipping point for global policy makers to align their interests with the Indian middle class instead of just viewing them as an economic and profit making opportunity!

Until individuals and organizations, both in India and abroad, can grasp the above sentiment and are able to put behind their petty personal grudges to unite and come together on a common platform to help the majority of Indian people they are merely pontificating in the air to bring about change... a la someone else we know from the recent and immediate past from the American political scene! ;-) 

By the way here is a recent presentation of the socio-economic accomplishments of Narendra Modi and his administration over the years. GUJRAT PRESENTATION.

9/11 Anniversary - My reactions

FIRST OF ALL MY RESPECTS TO ALL BRAVE, SERVING, AND MARTYRED AMERICANS!

On the anniversary of 9/11, to gauge world opinion I have been reading articles and essays by purported experts on America & Americans in foreign publications trying to describe the psyche of Americans and their government. It has been painful reading them give advice to us, which I consider nothing but stupid or short of senseless drivel. Their articles and essays may appeal to the less aware people who get swayed by even a light populist breeze, however I have to inform them their analysis is dead wrong! You cannot spend 4 years in an isolated environment of an academic institution in America and let that make you and expert on American psyche! That's doing no better than the terrorists hijackers of 9/11.

I can tell you as a person who grew up here and has now spent half my adult life in this country their "analysis" is way off the mark. One doesn't become an expert on America living in a closed environment like they did.


As much as I am saddened and humbled by the events of 9/11, and bow my head to the Heroes. I dearly wish from the bottom of my heart for the sake of the ones who lost their lives, their near and dear ones, my own children, family, friends and myself the events of the day would have never happened!


Without being an apologist for anyone, have some people in American government and corporate houses made mistakes along the way I'm sure they have. Tell me a nation or corporation that has not bungled along the way? Do you then go out and try to destroy them completely unless there intentions were clearly maleficent? Being a follower of history I can find less than a handful of such instances. America the government and America the corporate has never done anything close to that. Jokes aside, there is no arrogant and loudmouth America. This notion that America the big brother is trying to control the world as the single evil entity is nothing short of poppy seed ingested hallucinations that I can attribute to!

There is only ONE AMERICA, the warm loving, caring, & sharing ONE! The America these people will never know because of their inbuilt and deeply ingrained subconscious prejudices. If America and Americans are so bad why come here? Why not stay in the comfort of your cold dusty cave, or pest filled tropical jungle, or hot, dry arid desert, or wherever else you are coming from? I have yet to see people immigrating to Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Pakistan, India, China, Mexico, or even Japan and Europe, in droves like they make a bee-line for America even now!

For the last 3 years the country has been in a recession, bottoming housing market, high unemployment, and various other issues, yet the American people or the American government and business has not turned their on backs on anyone anywhere whether it be helping the earthquake victims in Haiti or Japan, rescue trapped miners in Chile (YES, American Technology at it's BEST!), trying to contain the financial meltdown in Europe (would have never guessed it, right?).

Does the world standby Americans when a natural calamity befalls us? Thank goodness we don't have half the problems they rest of the world has or we would be left up the creek to dry...

It confuses me that the rest of the world thinks that Americans have unlimited patience to keep on accepting the hurls and abuse it constantly throw at us yet we keep turning the other cheek! Has 9/11 changed Americans? It didn't immediately, but the procession of subsequent events is surely bringing about a slow and marked change in the thinking of "American" people.

Let me tell you what the event of 9/11/2001 has done, it has made the majority of simple minded, loving, and trusting Americans realize the world is a much deadlier and vengeful place than they can even imagine. That it is not all about "do unto others as you would have others do unto you"! There are people, countries, and ideologies that want to hold you(Americans) responsible & destroy you for the real and imaginary grievances which are inflicted on them by their own people!

Here's a thought if the Saudi hijackers were so upset at their monarchy why didn't they do something in their own country? Because they knew they would have faced a certain and mind you horrible death if their government had even got a whiff of their plans. So they come to America abuse our hospitality, take advantage of our law enforcement mechanism (innocent until proven guilty of an actual crime), prey on the tolerance of American society (had it been any other country they would have been marked men), to kill our people! If once was not enough we have another guy try to do the same almost a decade later by trying to use a SUV as an IED in New York - AGAIN! Yet it was not the first or second time that New York was made a target. In 1993 the WTC was the target of the first of many attempts to kill thousands of Americans by blowing up a truck filled with explosives in its' basement parking lot. So these were and are not isolated one off aberrations, but a series of well thought out deadly projects to inflict harm on the United States of America and it's citizens!

The American people are the ones that ALLOW their representatives to spend billions if not trillions of dollars on foreign aid helping other people. It is the American people who have ALLOWED their C-suite executives to export millions of jobs outside of the country to places like India & China. Yes, there is a business motive to it, but don't forget we could have done sent those jobs anywhere else had we wanted. Don't forget companies like Dell, HP, and others have shut down operations in India and elsewhere before and moved them elsewhere. America, could become a closed and protected economy like China, India, and dozens of other countries. America could also start imposing high tariffs on foreign imports like Europe, Japan, and others. Yet, we don't do it, at-least not yet; and don't tempt us into doing it! The tide is turning as 9/11 has started to make common Americans more aware of what has been and is going on in the rest of the world. Instead of trying to become equals the rest of the world does not think of rising up to the level of America, so what does it do try to do drag it down to their level!

Americans and myself included, because I am an AMERICAN and a PROUD one, are coming to the realization we need to take of our country and people first! We are getting sick of hearing there was a tsunami, earthquake, genocide in a certain part of the globe so we need to send billions of dollars of aid there and put our peoples' lives at risk! We don't care if people are starving in certain countries so we need to send jobs there to help them out. Why? Because look what 50 years of do gooding did to America, more than 3,000 killed in New York City!

For the last 200 years America took care of itself and the world when no-one was there to be a role model, now I think the time has come for America and Americans to once again take care of themselves, but let the rest of the world step-up it's own game!

Am I upset? YES, I am UPSET! Upset as an AMERICAN! Upset as a parent of couple of great ALL AMERICAN kids! UPSET AS AN AMERICAN CITIZEN WHO HAS HAD ENOUGH!

On behalf of most(see we still have freedom of choice!) AMERICANS I'm giving the rest of the world notice don't take us for granted, at-least not anymore!

WE WILL NEVER FORGET!

Looming CWG Fiasco in India

I'm trying to grasp the frustration everyone seems to have as well as the overwhelming urge to appoint blame and lay responsibility on a few individuals trotting around as figureheads... BTW, not absolving anyone from taking personal respon...sibility. Yet I am probably correct to assume that everyone of us who is demonstrating this "supposed" indignation is miles away from the ground reality in the planning, organizing, and execution of these games. Come on guys these are just games! Seems we are living in a pre-cold war world when the US & USSR tried to project their capabilities via the Olympics and we now know how hollow that projection of capabilities was / is. SCREW THE CWG, WHY THE HELL HASN'T ANYONE COMMENTED ON THE PLIGHT OF THE FOLKS DISPLACED BY THE ONGOING FLOODING IN NORTH INDIA!!! See how F#$%ed up our armchair brougeoisie mentality has become! If the events leading up to games had not been exposed by the media as a humongous SNAFU, I bet everyone here would have then reveled in basking in the glory of such great CWG games, and hailed the capabilities of India Shining! While we all know how superficial and limited those capabilities are... Development of infrastructure has always been the Achilles heel in India. Let's first accept this only then can we hope to move ahead, otherwise we will only move on...(!?!?!?)

Update: 12Hours later...

It was interesting to see Sr. Editor Headlines Today Sandeep Bamzai echo the exact same sentiment about India's weakness in infrastructural development as the major cause of the current CWG fiasco as well as the issues facing the general public due to flooding.

Follow-up: More Facts About $35.00 Indian Tablet

A NDTV report with Indian Union Minister of HRD Mr.Kapil Sibal with a working prototype of the $35.00 Tablet computer.

Gadget Guru - NDTV LINK



See a video from a few other Indian Tech wizards from a company called AllGo Systems at Trade show in Florida, USA.

Politics... taking the plunge!

Entering the political arena requires you to be ready to bare not only your deepest darkest secrets, but also your soul! Speak nothing of being under constant scrutiny even if trimming your toe nails. Also, entails very, very long hours and finally walking the talk you preach... I guess that is why people are terrified of politics...

So in the end it's ... hard to like what you are afraid of, which is why I believe politics is despised so much.

Sometimes I think where and how these folks get the energy to continue from early morning to late night on a regular basis.
 

I guess the best analogy it to think of it like getting into a warm mud bath at a spa-salon, first you have to cleanse yourself by taking a shower, stay naked and get into the warm mud, seems so yucky!!! ... but they say it has therapeutic value and as you get used to the warm mud so don't want to get out of it as it seems so relaxing and comfortable!

If ever you think you want to come out the mud bath then imagine you look like a pig wallowing naked and caked in mud, and by then staying in the mud bath seems more enticing than getting clean and going about your normal business!

Irrational Exuberance or Stupidity! Part - 2

Last week as I started to write about a - bubble of various sorts, forming across the entire gamut of the Indian economy the – sub-prime mortgage mess started to unravel in the US.

Media outlets and various financial organizations expressed shock and disbelief at the ramifications of the situation here in the US. It is interesting that none of them decided to interview the mastermind of the current fiscal mess his holiness - Mr. Alan Greenspan, under whose watchful eye the entire current sub-prime fiasco has it's genesis!

Yes, Mr.Greenspan is a very erudite and knowledgeable person; he is also the architect of this current mess. Mr.Greenspan had the knowledge and the tools at his disposal to prevent this situation in the sub-prime mortgage market as well as the deeper credit crunch that is making ripples across the globe. In fact if memory serves me and possibly other folks correctly this is not the first time Mr.Greenspan can be faulted for his acts of fiscal omissions - The Great Internet Bubble of the 20th Century also happened on his watch!

Now in India we have Prime Minister - Dr. Man Mohan Singh, who also is a very erudite fellow as well as an economist like Mr.Greenspan. Again if my memory serves me correctly the last time India as a country was almost at the doorstep of financial insolvency, this same Dr. Singh was at the head of the finance portfolio. Wonder if this is just a coincidence or fate as they say in India?

Lets look at some other interesting parallels.

Things that happened on Alan Greenspan's watch.

Black Monday 1987.

Internet pump and dump.

Beginning and end of Real-estate boom.

Super hot and sizzling economy, followed by busts and boom.

Overall decline in manufacturing economy!

Things that happened when Man Mohan Singh was lead Economic Advisor to PM, was FM, or PM himself.

India close to financial insolvency 1990.

Indian stock market pump and dump 1991/92.

Indian real-estate market becomes super hot.

Super hot and sizzling economy, followed by busts and boom.

Over all decline in manufacturing economy.

What happens next in India?

Every time I talk of the above scenario I am told to stop being a naysayer, and look at the rapid strides the service sector economy has made and the growth of employment etc. that will eventually create a trickle down effect that will uplift the Indian masses. Everyone tells me about the transition of global economies, from being agrarian to industrial manufacturing to eventually service driven.

TO WHICH I SAY CRAP! STOP THIS NONSENSE, FUELED BY PSEUDO-INTELLECTUAL DRIVEL!

SHOW ME ONE, ONLY ONE ECOMOMY THAT HAS SUSTAINED ITSELF ON A SERVICE ECONOMY WITH A GROWING POPULATION!

World War I & II saved the British Empire from being a footnote in history 50years ago. Japan has seen it's best days behind it. The Asian Tigers on the Pacific Rim are barely managing to keep their heads above water from the onslaught of the Chinese Tsunami. Countries on the African and South American continent barely register on any economic indicator or can hope to do so in the near future. Argentina and Brazil have never lived up to their potential despite the billions of dollars pumped into them in the past. Except for South Africa which has some economic activity the rest of the African continent it seems will be battling a human medical catastrophe.

Granted some of my predictions are a little extreme, but with a looming global recession, it would not take much for those predictions to come true!

Lets not forget about the nature of the Internet and electronic specialty service economy which moves at the speed of light is also susceptible to an equally rapid transformation into a commodity service that tends to flatten and remove various hierarchical barriers to entry for most service businesses. This not only reduces margins it automates and eliminates various functions that may have been essential earlier, and in turn may have been a source of wide scale employment.

The speed of the service economy is very rapid and by nature disruptive; it has a cannibalizing effect on general business and society as a whole. This is due to the constant search for greater economies of scale and optimization of efficiencies. We have witnessed this on a wide scale level during the dotcom meltdown. The same happens and has happened in an agrarian and industrialized economy, but at a much slower pace. When this reduction in economic activity does happen there is already enough ancillary business activity that has been created that it smoothes out the usual and periodic cyclical business and economic ups and downs.

My next post will touch on the immediate and near term ramifications of this service economy.

Irrational Exuberance or Stupidity? Part - I

For an individual that has been closely associated with the two business sectors in the US - IT Enabled Services and Retail, that have or are about to take off in the Southeast Asia region, especially India I sometimes find myself having a feeling of deja vu when reading excerpts of the astounding economic growth happening there. I have used the terms ITES in the US context because just as in India they were part of the IT growth boom in the US also.

This sense of deja vu is not of the same optimistic kind promoted and shared by a lot of other evangelists of developing world growth patterns.

I rejoice at the phenomenal growth that has and is continuing to happen in India; however I keep waiting to see some measure of hardcore economic activity in the development of physical infrastructure take place. Even when any activity to shore up physical infrastructure has / does happen it is only in response to an ancillary investment in islands of economic boom in places where there is already an ITES infrastructure.

Let's not forget what the acronym ITES stands for - Information Technology Enabled Services, in the majority of cases this is nothing but once again a fancy term for low end backroom processing support work that has been offshored to India from the more developed nations.

Support activity can only happen if there is primary business activity to be supported, if we keep on creating and encouraging an environment where home grown physical industries are decimated and discouraged we will face the same consequences that the US is currently facing.

The home grown US economy is already frayed at the edges and is starting to tear apart due to the lack of regular investments in in the physical infrastructure for almost the last 30years. Let's not forget even the robust internet era of the 1990's in the US could not keep the economy going for long.

I understand all investments follow the money trail, but you cannot have isolated islands of economic prosperity and growth in a land of 1.2billion people, not have some kind of equitable balance being maintained without having nasty repercussions. We have seen the former USSR implode and explode over ten years ago, which had similar kind of isolated pockets of growth. Granted India does have a wider base of business, but we have already seen the erosion and extinction of numerous small scale businesses and industries all over India, especially in areas far from these Special Economic Zones - SEZs.

At the time when I was moving to the US in the early '90s, major trans-national consumer (hard and soft goods) corporations were making a beeline to India to capitalize on the spending power of the - emerging Indian middle class. Many of them lost their shirts in the ensuing years and some have barely managed to stay around profitably even after all these years. This despite all the years of boom activity.

There is risk in all activity, however when people lose sight of rationality in understanding and accepting risk, it is politely termed - Irrational Exuberance, or in layman terms - Stupidity!

The Indian stock market has been growing at a double digit rates for the past few years, the real-estate situation is even worse prices are going up in triple digits and the lay people are lapping it up in the name of growth, being led around by organized opportunists - like rats dancing to the tune of the Pied Piper!

My opinions may seem harsh to many, but I have my reasons and will elaborate on them going forward.

Sample of my musings on Linked In - 8

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How would you differentiate between skill, knowledge and competency ?


“Competency = basic / learned capability required gain knowledge and skills.

Knowledge = basic / advanced information required to perform certain functions.

Skills = the dexterity to required to perform those functions.

Expertise = Competency + Knowledge + Skills ”

Sample of my musings on Linked In - 7

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I am looking for Professionals, Managers who are responsible for outsourcing contracts.



“Please provide details on your domains of expertise, a few references of projects currently ongoing or recently completed, billing rates, and average lead times along-with your location in India. Will certainly get back to you if this passes muster with my associates. ”

Sample of my musings on Linked In - 4

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How do you ask a former star employee to leave?



“Your question on "How to?" seems a little more in-depth than just a superficial question to a performance related situation.

You mention - - this person is emotionally attached to the company

- Why / How ? - is this person a former partner who is not happy with a new direction the organization may be going?

- Was this person promised / awarded with high rewards compared to initial baseline
expectations than what the company initially had? Now that that the business is maturing the expectations are different? So a change in star status????

- Since yours may still be a fledgling organization you may not have a formal HR setup and everyone maybe viewing themselves as having potential ownership of the company, though in reality there may be only one or two real owners.

- No matter where you are or what you do a - 'friend' is never perceived as a - 'boss' or 'mentor', so don't try to become a 'boss' now after being a 'friend'. You will usually be ignored at best and / or be viewed with antagonism and being arrogant otherwise.

My suggestion is to have a peer of your's have a formal heart to heart talk with this associate and plant a seed of separation on either a voluntary or involuntary basis. Sometimes even the office grapevine has it's uses in resolving such issues. This way if and when you finally discuss the separation issue directly it will not come as a surprise to this individual as then it would be viewed as inevitable since others in the work place knew of it also.

Lastly, I can't imagine having dead weight around as you imply is good for the company bottom-line, so also mention that the organization's finances cannot support operational inefficiencies therefore separation would be the most mutually beneficial option. Keep the discussion focussed on the organizational needs and expectations, do not delve into personal issues, habits, or behaviour as this would be counter-productive.

Be firm, but compassionate. Offer a personal recommendation to assist with new endevours if the person requests and keep it brief and business oriented. Hopefully, your friendship will survive this incident."

Non-Corporate Indian Brands - 1

Recently, one of my friends in India asked for my views on Non-corporate Indian brands that have had global impact.

His question was -

What is your take on these global brand concepts from India. How does world see it? Do they have momentum of their own which could turn them into a big global phenomenon?

This started me thinking and the result is printed here... as an ongoing series...

In my opinion and observation, the biggest, most recognized, with the most impact, and one of most visible non-corporate brands is definitely - "IIT". The mere mention "IIT" in almost any forum draws an immediate response of admiration. IIT Alumni having been having a tremendous impact in the US, especially since the 1990's, leading upto the highly visible pre-dot.com success and subsequent bust of various start-ups fronted by various IIT Alumni.

Brand "IIT" has given a majority of the Indian Diaspora a great deal of visibility, material well being, and an extremely powerful lobbying platform in the US. Caused upheavals in the US immigration rules for H1-B, L-visa categories, caused a huge and ongoing economic & IT/BPO boom in India, and a perceived negative on impact on the US economy and employment.

Brand "IIT" has given the Indian education system credibility and respectability, which was severely lacking before the dot.com success of various IIT Alumni - Entrepreneurs and Venture Capitalists.

Though the Indian Medical Community was quite successful in the US, they did not belong to a single monolithic establishment where they were groomed for future success.

Earlier success by Indians in the US was usually termed as a individual and fleeting moment to celebrate.

Brand "IIT" currently has the momentum and should continue gathering momentum as highly visible force in the future, if it does not fall victim to it's own success.

That being -

1. The growing perception among various US employers, and even major Outsourcers, is that the current crop of IITians and graduates of other Tech schools from India are starting to act like mercenaries. Running after the money without having the genuine skills and experience to plod through some of the basic task oriented stuff that needs to be done on a daily basis. A process through which prior IIT alumni went through before breaking out and achieving their visible success.

2. A perception and a possible move towards the dilution of the core IIT curriculum in a manner to reflect and be able to integrate easily with the US higher education standards.

3. As mentioned in point -1, higher turnover from the IITians in the corporate world leading to a disruption in corporate growth due to the re-assignment of multiple individuals to the same project, resulting in lower productivity. A pattern that is being commonly encountered by various US companies off-shoring work to India.

4. The above would lead industry to look to alternatives outside of India, which would greatly inhibit any further growth on brand "IIT". Schools have impact, but ultimately it is industry that employs them and provides them a platform to excel and gain recognition.