On Feb.25th of this year I had blogged about the coming global financial meltdown that would be precipitated due to turmoil caused by the financial profligacy of the European Union member states in the last decade. The Euro-Zone has even joined a visually enticing acronym for the countries most likely to default now - PIGS = Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain. Friends if you have any doubts please go back an look up the stats on my blog that I refer to, Greece was the country with the least amount of issues. Just imagine what will happen if Portugal, Ireland, Spain implode or explode depending on what word you would like to describe the event as. All I can say is Europe will be knee deep in - PIS!!!
A fact that had been staring us in the face for anyone who cared to look, but not one major economist or financial guru was willing to admit to. So folks how does it feel to be lighter in the pocket? Invest in currency & commodities - Euro, metals, and energy? Gee whiz crude is down 15%, the Euro is down 15%, Gold is down from it's high, so friends what is going on.... ? Stay tuned...
Friday, May 21, 2010
PIGS in the Euro-Zone
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Politics... taking the plunge!
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Are the economic experts reallly that stupid...?!?!?!
In the last quarter of 2009 there was great deal of optimism that the global economy was on the verge of turning around, but the US economy was doomed to complete annihilation, which was the reason gold was having such a great run up.
Now I'm not an economist or an expert on the subject, but I have studied it a little and do read a bit, more than anything I like to look at facts before making any kind of predictions.
Anyone who claims to be an economist even as a passing dilettante on the subject usually has reams and gobs of paper pass under their nose that would show factually where the fault lines are in the global economy. Yet, there is either a global conspiracy to suppress the evidence or the academics who teach the subject have no idea what they are talking about these days, or even in the past when were proven dead wrong(!); and still fail to admit that the academic theories they have grown up studying and teaching are fundamentally flawed in this new age of instant global inter-connectedness!
Let's get to the real issue - a great global meltdown is staring at us in the face yet nobody sees - EUROPE!!! All everyone can report about is the failures of the American economy, which are miniscule compared to what has already happened in Europe, is now happening, and will unfold in the coming months!!!
Greece is just the very "tiny" tip of the financial meltdown volcano that will erupt if people these so called economic experts do not take their heads out of places where the sun don't shine, and start initiating more sound economic polices rather than blow air as they did at the WEF recently!
Anyway, to satisfy my own curiosity and see how and why my hypothesis may just be right I created the following tables to analyze and draw my own conclusions. The information is as of 2008, so still current.
| Rank | Country | GDP in Billions | % Debt. Of GDP | External Debt. in Billions | Per Capita Debt | Per Capita GDP |
| 20 | United States | $14,260.00 | 94.35% | $13,454.00 | $43,793.00 | $47,440.00 |
| 19 | Hungary | $196.60 | 105.76% | $207.92 | $20,936.64 | $19,553.00 |
| 18 | Australia | $800.20 | 111.38% | $891.26 | $42,426.18 | $36,918.00 |
| 17 | Italy | $1,823.00 | 126.71% | $2,310.00 | $39,741.00 | $30,631.00 |
| 16 | Greece | $343.00 | 161.17% | $552.80 | $51,483.00 | $30,681.00 |
| 15 | Spain | $1,403.00 | 171.70% | $2,409.00 | $59,457.00 | $30,589.00 |
| 14 | Germany | $2,918.00 | 178.48% | $5,208.00 | $63,263.00 | $36,320.00 |
| 13 | Finland | $193.50 | 188.55% | $364.85 | $69,491.00 | $36,320.00 |
| 12 | Sweden | $344.30 | 194.34% | $669.10 | $73,854.00 | $37,334.00 |
| 11 | Norway | $275.40 | 199.02% | $548.10 | $117,604.00 | $53,738.00 |
| 10 | Hong Kong | $306.60 | 205.85% | $631.13 | $89,457.00 | $43,847.00 |
| 9 | Portugal | $236.50 | 214.38% | $507.00 | $47,348.00 | $22,232.00 |
| 8 | France | $2,128.00 | 235.95% | $5,021.00 | $78,387.00 | $34,205.00 |
| 7 | Austria | $329.50 | 252.63% | $832.42 | $101,387.00 | $39,887.00 |
| 6 | Denmark | $203.60 | 298.32% | $607.38 | $110,422.00 | $37,304.00 |
| 5 | Belgium | $389.00 | 320.31% | $1,246.00 | $119,681.00 | $36,416.00 |
| 4 | Netherlands | $672.00 | 364.88% | $2,452.00 | $146,703.00 | $40,558.00 |
| 3 | United Kingdom | $2,226.00 | 408.22% | $9,087.00 | $148,702.00 | $36,358.00 |
| 2 | Switzerland | $316.70 | 422.48% | $1,338.00 | $176,045.00 | $43,196.00 |
| 1 | Ireland | $188.40 | 1266.45% | $2,386.00 | $576,805.00 | $42,110.00 |
I have highlighted the US and six largest economies in Europe.
Just look at the per capita debt per person vs the per capita GDP and draw your own conclusions from the comparisons. By the way the population of US is approx. 311 million, while the population of European Union for those wanting to do more analysis is approx. 500 million.
Besides the teetering economies that we are already aware of Iceland and Greece, there are greater underlying problems in Europe specially in the realm of politics and it's proximity to Russia and the turbulence that arises from the Middle-East. Let's not factor out geo-politics when it comes to the occurrence, division, and allocation of natural resources, and ethnic tensions in the region.
If anyone of the readers was a betting person and was aware of the geo-political-economic world order which country would you place your bets on... to successfully emerge intact with the least amount of collateral damage from the current economic crisis?
So in the end it's ... hard to like what you are afraid of, which is why I believe politics is despised so much.